Life works in probabilities. Everything is a gradient of maybe between yes and no. Since nothing is impossible, and nothing is absolute, life plans only make sense in broad strokes, and obsessing over their specific details is frequently doomed to failure.

Events tend to cluster around coherent outcomes and we get drawn towards those clusters without even realizing.

Between intent and outcome an entire tree of possibilities unfolds, whose branches intertwine with other people’s intents and probabilities, and the final outcome is not an instance, but a range of acceptable developments. 

Many of those are surprising and unplanned, because we don’t have enough data during the planning phase.

In retrospect, our decision-making process looks more like this: there are things we would avoid at all costs, things we bitterly settle for, things that are alright, circumstances considered, lucky breaks, and dreams we’d do almost anything to accomplish. 

Circumstances are constantly in motion and subject to sudden changes, like a giant game of marbles with too many players.

That doesn’t mean focusing on your intentions is pointless, quite the opposite: wishes and desires draw us closer to the clustering of circumstances with the highest probability of making them real.

Of course, that highest probability may be less than their manifestation threshold, or worse yet, you may end up in the one percent of a ninety-nine percent sure bet.

Nothing is certain until it actually happened, for good or for bad.

If you want to guess where you’re going, track your past trajectory, which is no longer subject to change. This is a great way to test the decision-making theory above, and a good way to see the choices you actually made, as opposed to the ones you rationalize you made.

In conclusion, what are the points worth remembering?

1. Life doesn’t work in certainties, it works in probabilities.
2. All circumstances are subject to sudden change and are continuously in motionWishes and desires get unconsciously drawn towards the clustering of circumstances with the highest likelihood of making them come true.
3. Nothing is certain until it actually happened.
4. The highest probability of something happening may be below the threshold that will make it manifest, or you may end up on the wrong side of almost certain odds.
5. If you want to know what your choices truly are, and, in consequence, where you’re going, track your past trajectory, which is no longer subject to change.
6. We never choose what we think we want, we always choose our values. Specifically, the higher value in a comparison between evenly matched competing values.